Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast

Abstract: Study of development prospects of the country’s economy and energy requires long-term forecasting of energy demand. Such forecasting is particularly complex due to, among other things, uncertainty of economic and political conditions and technological development, as well as increasing ambiguity and variability of the relevant influencing factors and trends. The article provides an analysis of the current state, long-term trends, and new directions of energy use in large sectors of the Russian economy (industry, household, transport), including comparisons with other countries. The applied methodological approach to forecasting energy demand can be adjusted for promising structural and technological changes in industries, the spread of new technologies, and improved energy efficiency. Possible trajectories of changes in electricity and energy demand and in the energy intensity of Russia’s GDP in the period until 2050 are calculated for conservative and baseline economic development scenarios. It is shown that the dynamics of per capita electricity consumption in Russia correspond to global trends. Additionally, estimates of changes in energy consumption levels associated with the use of digital technologies in the household sector and with large-scale development of electric mobility are also given. © 2023, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.