Randomized Earned Value Method for the rolling assessment of construction projects advancement

The Randomized Earned Value Method enable to control the time and cost of works during the implementation of a construction project. The method allows to assess the compliance of the current advancement in time and actually incurred costs with the adopted plan. It also allows to predict the date and amount of the project completion costs. Individual assessment indicators (BCWS, BCWP, ACWP) are calculated after the ongoing control of the progression of works. In the case of randomly changing of implementation conditions, the calculated in this way values of the indicators may be unacceptable because of overlarge differences in comparison to actual values. Therefore, it is proposed an EVM enhancement and additional risk conditions analysis. In this approach data from the quantity survey of works are randomized based on analysis of variations between actually measured and planned values of duration and cost of implemented works. It is estimated the randomized values of individual indicators after successive controls of the progress of works. After each project advancement control the duration and cost of the works that remain to be performed are estimated. Moreover, new verified overall time and total cost of the project implementation are also estimated. After the last inspection, randomized values of the final date and total cost of completion of the project are calculated, as well as randomized values of time extension and total cost overrun. Of course, for randomized values, standard deviations of individual quantities are calculated. Therefore, the risk of time and the risk of cost of the project implementation are presented in the risk charts. The proposed approach provides a better assessment of the progress of works under risk conditions. It is worth to add that the method does not require significant changes to the typical construction management process, however, it ensures realistic consideration of the influence of random factors on the course and results of individual works and the entire project.