BOT Project Risk Estimation

This paper establishes the risk quantification model of three-parameter (probability controllability and consequence). The three-parameter risk quantification (PRQ) model provides a logical, reliable, and consistent procedure for assessing the BOT project risk using fuzzy approach to improve the risk evaluating quality. The model uses the fuzzy approach in scoring the subjective judgments of the experts. The fuzzy approach is described, estimation flow is introduced, and the implement step of PRQ is given. According to the model, an example of garbage burning power plant project is analyzed and validated and gets an effective way of solving risk quantity problem. The result reveals that the PRQ model can improve the BOT project risk management accurately and promotes decision making of BOT project risk management scientifically.