Estimation method of economic risk indicator of BOT investment project

Based on the time function of the economic variable of the project and probability distribution of me predicted value, this paper put forward a calculation formula of the economic risk indicator of BOT project. By using the simulation computing technology to get the expected value of every economic risk indicator of BOT project and probability distribution, than measure the economic risk of investment project, according to the taste degree to the risk of invest operator, than make the decision on investment item. Basing on the of time function of the economic variable and the predicted value of cumulative distribution function, this paper proposes the mathematic expression of every economic risk indicator, and the estimate method of the economic risk of project by using the simulation method to obtain the expected value of every economic risk indicator of BOT project and cumulative distribution function basing on the risk preference of the investors and operators, analyze the economic indicator value with the risk tolerance that can be accepted, offer more precise decision to investor.