Identification of ecological security pattern based on ecosystem service supply and demand in the Yangtze River Delta, China

The identification of ecological security pattern(ESP) is of great significance in solving regional ecological security problems. The study proposes two new perspectives for the study of ESP Firstly, a new method for identifying ecological supply and demand areas based on the ratio of ecosystem service supply and demand is proposed; The second is to combine socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios to predict the future supply and demand of regional ecosystem services under different climate scenarios, and to further predict the future regional ESPs under different climate scenarios. Finally, A planning proposal based on ESP of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) based on the supply and demand perspective was put forward, with 'two belts-four zones'. The results show that the ESP changes significantly under different climate scenarios, and the ecological demands under the three scenarios continue to increase during the study period.