SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF LATERAL INFLOW IN BOGUCHANSKAYA HYDROPOWER STATION RESERVOIR

Relevance of the work. Boguchanskaya hydropower station on the Angara river was put into operation in 2014. It is one of the largest hydraulic engineering constructions in Eastern Siberia. Boguchanskaya hydropower station is designed to meet the growing energy deficit. At project operating mode of the hydropower station, the level of the reservoir should be changed within +/- 0,5 m. The reliable short-term forecasts of lateral in flow are required at such slight alteration of the level for preventing the situations related to over flow of Boguchanskaya hydropower station reservoir. The existing method of calculation and forecast of the lateral inflow is out of date. This fact defines the relevance of the research. The main aim of the study is to implement the mathematical model of river flow formation under landscape-hydrological conditions of Boguchanskaya hydropower station reservoir basin for short-term (1-7 days) forecasts of lateral inflow. The methods used in the study: water balance method, geographical and hydrological method, mathematical modeling of flow formation. The results. The mathematical model of the water flow formation was adapted based on convolution integral for short-term forecasting of the inflow into Boguchanskoe reservoir at the Angara river (the Russian Federation). The paper introduces the landscape-hydrological base that ensures the model implementation. The authors have estimated snow accumulation on the territory of the lateral inflow basin in Boguchanskoe reservoir, using a land-based snow-shooting of Rosgidromet and satellite information on the dynamics of snow cover. A complex index of soil water permeability of the basin was substantiated. The index takes into account autumn moistening and soil freezing. The authors developed the technique of the short-term forecast of the lateral inflow into the Boguchanskaya hydropower station reservoir.