Does the environmental protection tax reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

The environmental protection tax (EPT) is an important environmental policy in China. However, it remains unclear whether the EPT has reduced environmental pollution effectively since its implementation in 2018. Based on the panel data of 229 prefecture-level cities in China during 2015–2019 and the difference-in-differences (DID) model, this study empirically assesses the causal effect of the EPT on environmental pollution. It is found that the EPT has a significantly negative effect on industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2) and industrial soot (dust) emissions but has no significant impact on industrial wastewater emissions. The mechanism analysis reveals that the EPT has the tax enforcement effect and energy efficiency effect, that is, the EPT reduces pollution emissions through increasing actual tax burden and improving the efficiency of energy utilization. However, the innovation effect is weak, which is only effective in reducing industrial SO2 emissions. Finally, we compare how different types of cities responded to the EPT. The results show that the EPT has limited effect on environmental pollution in large cities and southern China.