Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Himachal Pradesh and adjoining regions

Seismically active Himachal Pradesh and adjoining regions comprising Himalayan orogenic belt with the experience of the great Kangra earthquake of 1905, has high potential for river valley projects. There are already operating hydropower projects, some under construction and a few more coming up. In view of this it is important to know the ground motion nature for various locales. The present study is about estimation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the state of Himachal Pradesh and adjoining regions using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach. Standard procedure for PSHA has been adopted for this study and peak ground motion has been estimated for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years at the bed rock level considering two cases: (i) varying b-value for each source zone, (ii) constant b-value for each source zone. For 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the PGA values vary from 0.096 to 0.15 g and 0.09 to 0.26 g considering varying b-value, and constant b-value, respectively. In case of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the PGA varies between 0.07 to 0.24 g considering varying b-values and 0.14 to 0.37 g considering constant b-values. Higher PGA values are observed in the southeast part considering varying b-values whereas the region situated around Kaurik Fault System (KFS) has shown higher PGA values in case of constant b-value.