Elevation response of above-ground net primary productivity for Picea crassifolia to climate change in Qilian Mountains of Northwest China based on tree rings

Current ecosystem models used to simulate global terrestrial carbon balance generally suggest that terrestrial landscapes are stable and mature, but terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) data estimated without accounting for disturbances in species composition, environment, structure, and ecological characteristics will reduce the accuracy of the global carbon budget. Therefore, the steady-state assumption and neglect of elevation-related changes in forest NPP is a concern. The Qilian Mountains are located in continental climate zone, and vegetation is highly sensitive to climate change. We quantified aboveground biomass (AGB) and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) sequences at three elevations using field-collected tree rings of Picea crassifolia in Qilian Mountains of Northwest China. The results showed that (1) There were significant differences between AGB and ANPP at the three elevations, and the growth rate of AGB was the highest at the low elevation (55.99 t ha−1 10a−1). (2) There are differences in the response relationship between the ANPP and climate factors at the three elevations, and drought stress is the main climate signal affecting the change of ANPP. (3) Under the future climate scenario, drought stress intensifies, and the predicted decline trend of ANPP at the three elevations from mid-century to the end of this century is −0.025 t ha−1 10a−1, respectively; −0.022 t ha−1 10a−1; At −0.246 t ha−1 10a−1, the level of forest productivity was significantly degraded. The results reveal the elevation gradient differences in forest productivity levels and provide key information for studying the carbon sink potential of boreal forests.