Climate change projections in Guatemala: temperature and precipitation changes according to CMIP6 models

Projected changes in precipitation and temperature for Guatemala were examined using the phase 6 dataset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CMIP6 models project alterations in annual mean temperature and precipitation in Guatemala relative to the current climate. A set of 25 CMIP6 models project a continuous increase in annual mean temperature over Guatemala during the twenty-first century under four future scenarios. The data provided by WorldClim has a spatial resolution of 2.5 min (of a longitude/latitude degree) this means a 4.5 km × 4.5 km of area of each pixel approximately. for the climate horizons of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100, these were adjusted based on the average of 38 local stations in Guatemala from the period (1970–2000). The projected temperature shows a large increase over 5 °C under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, over the northern parts of Guatemala and the northwest. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature in Guatemala is projected to increase by on average 1.8 °C, 2.9 °C, 4.3 °C, and 5.4 °C under the SSP1_2.6, SSP2_4.5, SSP3_7.0, and SSP5_8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to current climate (1990–2020). The warming is differentiated on a monthly time scale, with CMIP6 models projecting greater warming in July, August, and September, part of the summer and autumn season. Annual precipitation is projected to decrease in Guatemala during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in projected mean annual precipitation varies considerably among scenarios; − 5%, − 9%, − 18%, and − 22% under the SSP1_2.6, SSP2_4.5, SSP3_7.0, and SSP5_8.5 scenarios, respectively. Monthly precipitation projections show great variability, with projected precipitation for the months of May, June, and July, part of the spring and summer, showing a greater decrease than other months and specifically in the northern part of the country. On the other hand, mid-summer precipitation (July and August) shows a decrease in the central and eastern part of the country. The results presented in this study provide baseline information on CMIP6 models for Guatemala, which serve as a basis for developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.