Spatiotemporal projections of extreme precipitation over Algeria based on CMIP6 global climate models

In this study, we assess the spatiotemporal projections of precipitation over Algeria derived from the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of eleven global climate model datasets within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The patterns of six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were analyzed for two future time slices: the near-future period 2021–2040 and far-future period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period (1995–2014), under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: medium emission SSP2-4.5 and worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5). These indices cover those representing the consecutive dry days CDD, simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD) and very wet days (R95p). The MME Projections show a substantial reduction in total precipitation over most parts of the country by the mid and the end of the twenty-first century. The northern region close to the Mediterranean Sea will experience the highest drying, particularly during the October–December season. The reduction in precipitation would exacerbate the prevailing protracted drought over the country and drastically alter the environmental infrastructure. The projections depict an increase of the very heavy precipitation days and the very wet days by the end of the century and under both scenarios, hence, this could increase the flooding and landslides risk over the country, albeit with reduced total precipitation. The findings of this study are useful for hydrological related preparedness in the era of global warming and climate change.