Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan

Rainfall pattern and temperature variation are changing due to global warming, affecting crop production. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production during the rice growth phases over the Punjab province, Pakistan, for the period of 1981–2017. The impact of climate on rice production is analyzed using the statistical techniques. Results show that maximum temperature negatively affects rice plant resulting in decrease in the number of plants at replantation stage. The positive impact of minimum temperature on rice production is also observed that may cause growth of plant, which affects the rice crop at replantation stage during vegetative phase. Results revealed that number of tillers and rice plant diet increase with the positive impact of rainfall at tillering stage. Maximum temperature has negative impact on rice crop at tillering and stem elongation stages. It is observed that rainfall has negative impact on rice plant at heading and flowering stages. Substantial reduction in rice production is observed due to damage of reproductive cells at heading and flowering stages during the reproductive phase. The negative effect of rainfall on rice production is also observed at milking stage during the ripening phase. The negative significant impact of rainfall is observed on gross domestic product per capita during the reproductive phase. This study also predicts that temperatures in the Punjab will rise in the near future; therefore, it is recommended that breeders should introduce rice varieties that consume less water and are more productive in high temperature.