Integrated impact assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptations for agricultural production system of Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change is posing serious threats to sustainable development and global food security. During the last decade, Pakistan Agro-based economy drastically affected by climatic extreme especially the cotton crop production of Pakistan. This study designed to investigate climatic vulnerability of cotton-wheat cropping system in current time and devise adaptation packages for the farmers to better adapt the climate change. The primary, secondary and modeled data of crop (APSIM and DSSAT) and climate models was utilized in this study. The survey was conducted through a well-structured questionnaire from southern Punjab. The Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment was utilized to find the current vulnerability and adaptations for the cotton-wheat cropping system. Results revealed that for cotton crop there is high yield reduction due to climate change, as cotton is sensitive to variation in climate. In hot dry and hot wet GCMs (General circulation model) reduction is huge and increase in temperature at specific stages cause lack of germination of seed or complete death of the plant. Wheat is relatively less vulnerable, benefits due to increased concentration of carbon dioxide compensate the losses due to elevated temperature. Yield reductions due to climate change will increase the poverty rate and reduce net farm returns and per capita income of the farming community. For current adaptations regarding climatic hazards that would increase the crop yields also includes fertigation, efficient irrigation, import of gene variety, crop insurance, and enterprise diversification. The suggested management interventions will reduce the losses and improve the farm livelihood. Crop insurance and agricultural credit must be insured for farmers to better adapt the climatic extremes.