Predicting Future Hip Fractures on Routine Abdominal CT Using Opportunistic Osteoporosis Screening Measures: A Matched Case-Control Study

OBJECTIVE. Hip fracture is a major consequence of low bone mineral density, which is treatable but underdiagnosed. The purpose of this case-control study is to determine whether lumbar vertebral trabecular attenuation, vertebral compression fractures, and femoral neck T scores readily derived from abdominopelvic CT scans obtained for various indications are associated with future hip fragility fracture. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A cohort of 204 patients with hip fracture (130 women and 74 men; mean age, 74.3 years) who had undergone abdominopelvic CT before fracture occurred (mean interval, 24.8 months) was compared with an age-and sex-matched control cohort without hip fracture. L1 trabecular attenuation, vertebral compression fractures of grades 2 and 3, and femoral neck T scores derived from asynchronous quantitative CT were recorded. The presence of one or more clinical risk factor for fracture was also recorded. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the association of each measurement with the occurrence of hip fracture. RESULTS. The mean L1 trabecular attenuation value, the presence of one or more vertebral compression fracture, and CT-derived femoral neck T scores were all significantly different in patients with hip fracture versus control subjects (p < 0.01). Logistic regression models showed a significant association of all measurements with hip fracture outcome after adjustments were made for age, sex, and the presence of one or more clinical risk factor. L1 trabecular attenuation and CT-derived femoral neck T scores showed moderate accuracy in differentiating case and control patients (AUC, 0.70 and 0.78, respectively). CONCLUSION. L1 trabecular attenuation, CT-derived femoral neck T scores, and the presence of at least one vertebral compression fracture on CT are all associated with future hip fragility fracture in adults undergoing routine abdominopelvic CT for a variety of conditions.