Rumor, information and the crude oil price

By comparing the daily WTI spot price and the daily crude oil market related price, this paper try to figure out the impact of rumors and some market information. Several influential news are extracted and categorized as six types, which are WAR, MERGE, OPEC, API, AGA and OTHERS. The OLS regression and multinomial legit analysis are applied here. The outcome shows that the impacts of most above variables on the oil price change are quite significant. It is believed that such an evidence can bring some theoretical supports for improving current world oil pricing formulas.