March Madness, Quantile Regression Bracketology, and the Hayek Hypothesis

被引:9
|
作者
Koenker, Roger [1 ]
Bassett, Gilbert W., Jr. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Illinois, Dept Econ, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
[2] Univ Illinois, Dept Finance, Chicago, IL 60607 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Paired comparison; Quantile regression;
D O I
10.1198/jbes.2009.07093
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
A quantile regression variant of the classical paired comparison model of mean ratings is proposed. The model is estimated using data for the regular 2004-2005 U.S. college basketball season, and evaluated based on predictive performance for the 2005 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament. Rather than basing predictions entirely on conditional mean estimates produced by classical least-squares paired comparison methods, the proposed methods produce predictive densities that can be used to evaluate point spread and over/under gambling opportunities. Mildly favorable betting opportunities are revealed. More generally, the proposed methods offer a flexible approach to conditional density forecasting for a broad class of applications. An electronic supplement containing predictive densities for point totals and team offensive and defensive ratings is available from the JBES website.
引用
收藏
页码:26 / 35
页数:10
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] The absolute health income hypothesis revisited: a semiparametric quantile regression approach
    Yiguo Sun
    Thanasis Stengos
    Empirical Economics, 2008, 35
  • [22] Relational reasoning and divergent thinking: An examination of the threshold hypothesis with quantile regression
    Dumas, Denis
    CONTEMPORARY EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY, 2018, 53 : 1 - 14
  • [23] Regression Quantile and Averaged Regression Quantile Processes
    Jureckova, Jana
    ANALYTICAL METHODS IN STATISTICS, AMISTAT 2015, 2017, 193 : 53 - 62
  • [24] March madness continues ...
    Crolius, Robert W.
    AMERICAN CERAMIC SOCIETY BULLETIN, 2006, 85 (05): : 8 - 8
  • [25] March ad madness
    America, Anna
    Presstime, 2003, 25 (02):
  • [26] Anomalies in Tournament Design: The Madness of March Madness
    Baumann, Robert
    Matheson, Victor A.
    Howe, Cara A.
    JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN SPORTS, 2010, 6 (02)
  • [27] Quantile regression
    Koenker, R
    Hallock, KF
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES, 2001, 15 (04): : 143 - 156
  • [28] Quantile regression
    Karlsson, Andreas
    JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 2007, 170 : 256 - 256
  • [29] The Hayek hypothesis in experimental economics -: Reply
    Brüggelambert, G
    JAHRBUCHER FUR NATIONALOKONOMIE UND STATISTIK, 1998, 217 (06): : 764 - 767
  • [30] Quantile regression
    Chernozhukov, Victor
    Galvao, Antonio F.
    He, Xuming
    Xiao, Zhijie
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 2019, 213 (01) : 1 - 3