Policy analysis of greenhouse gas emissions: the case of the Lebanese electricity sector

The energy sector in Lebanon contributes 85% of all CO2 emissions and 96% of all SO2 emissions. In addition, the consumption of electricity in Lebanon is relatively low compared with most industrialized countries, but it is high compared with many developing countries of similar conditions (2200 kW h/capita in 1998). This high electricity intensity suggests that there is a low efficiency in both, the generation and end use. For this reason, two aims have been defined for this paper. The first aim is to develop a baseline scenario that reflects the government policies and plans with regard to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the electricity sector, and the second aim is to propose mitigation scenarios for reducing GHG emissions in the electricity supply sector. These mitigation scenarios will explore the merits of options not considered by the government to deduce an optimal planning strategy that will lead to a generation expansion plan at minimum cost and minimum emissions. It will be shown that the choice of natural gas as a future fuel is highly recommended and that the promotion of renewable energy technologies is also recommended and should be given priority when these technologies become economically competitive. Other measures such as network loss reduction will positively contribute to GHG mitigation in Lebanon. However, the achievement of such a goal requires no recommendation, as it should be a normal utility practice. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.