Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

Impacts of the climate change on the space heating systems are discussed. We have used the latest global temperature data of the Global Climate Historical Network to demonstrate that the heating and cooling demand combined is decreasing in the world regions with boreal and moderate climate conditions almost everywhere. A simulation approach was developed to assess the impact of the climate change of the efficiency of a modern binary-cycle cogeneration power plant. Both statistical parameters of the air temperature and the thermal circuit of the power plant were modeled in details. It was found that even for a quite optimistic climate scenario the annual efficiency decrease may be as high as 1-2%. This means that careful consideration of the climate-related heating load dynamics is of key importance by implementation and renovation of the district heating systems.