Allocation of Healthcare Resources in National Health Systems Under Climate Change

Climate change has, among others, impacts on human health and by consequence on healthcare systems. Some impacts are direct such as extreme events, air pollution and aeroallergens, and some are indirect such as reduced food production and supply, vector-borne and water-borne infectious diseases, and social and economic disruptions. The main aim of this paper is to study the pressures of climate change on national healthcare systems. An empirical dynamic resource allocation problem is proposed to estimate how healthcare systems may be affected by climate change. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear programming model which finds the optimal allocation of healthcare resources that compensate for life expectancy reductions due to climate change. We examine various scenarios of climate impacts to estimate the additional budget and healthcare resources needed. The results show that the necessary healthcare budget grows nonlinearly with respect to impacts with disproportional demands on lower income countries. Finally, the necessary healthcare investments should be made sooner as climate impacts become heavier. Our methodology could aid policy-makers in prioritizing measures to enhance the climate resilience of national healthcare systems. © The Author(s) 2023.