Prediction of the landscape pattern of the Yancheng Coastal Wetland, China, based on XGBoost and the MCE-CA-Markov model

Coastal wetland is a crucial part of the blue carbon ecosystem, having unique structural characteristics and serving both land and water functions. These areas also offer strong carbon sequestration and storage capacity. However, human activities and climate change have led to an ongoing decline in wetland areas. As an important wetland reserve in China, the coastal wetlands of Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, bring together a great number of water resources, land resources, biological resources, landscape resources, mineral resources, energy resources, and many other resources. However, in recent years, the coastal wetlands of Yancheng have also faced a continuous reduction in area. In this study, an integrated model of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and multi-criteria evaluation-cellular automata-Markov (MCE-CA-Markov) model was designed to determine the importance of the driving factors of landscape pattern change and predict the landscape pattern of coastal wetlands in 2025, based on the analysis of landscape pattern changes in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 in Yancheng coastal wetlands, Jiangsu Province. The results showed that the landscape configuration of coastal wetlands in Yancheng changed significantly during 2005-2020. The total natural wetland landscape area declined steadily over that 15-year span, showing a total decrease of 2.971x 104 ha; on the contrary, the artificial wetlands increased. The analysis of the driving factors of wetland damage showed that gross domestic product (GDP), distance to roads, and average precipitation were the key factors. Based on this model, the natural wetland landscape of Yancheng's coastal wetlands is predicted to decline sharply in 2025, and the wetland salt marsh vegetation will be extensively converted to aquaculture and agricultural land. Constructed land is predicted to increase significantly, and the trend of urban expansion is obvious. The study concludes with practical suggestions for the sustainable development and ecological conservation of the Yancheng coastal wetland ecosystem based on the predicted scenario.