Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Evolution and Simulation of Dike-Pond Landscape and Ecosystem Service Value Based on MCE-CA-Markov: A Case Study of Shunde, Foshan

Dike-pond is a unique agricultural landscape type in the Pearl River Delta region of China, which has significance for the maintenance of ecological balance. In recent years, urbanization in China has developed rapidly, and dike-ponds have been extensively occupied, reducing their ecological regulation ability and threatening regional ecological security. Taking the Shunde District of Foshan as an example, based on remote sensing images from 1979 to 2020, using a CA-Markov model with the multi-criteria evaluation method (MCE), firstly the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the dike-pond landscape pattern were analyzed, then the dike-pond landscape in 2030 was simulated. At last, the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) in Shunde was visualized. The results show that: (1) In the past four decades, the landscape types in Shunde have changed significantly. This mainly manifested as dike-pond, cultivated land, and forest land transforming into construction land. (2) At the class level, the degree of dike-pond landscape fragmentation increased, and the degree of dominance and agglomeration decreased. At the landscape level, the regional degree of dominance showed an upward trend, whereas the overall landscape showed an unbalanced trend distribution. It is predicted that from 2020 to 2030, the landscape pattern of dike-pond will not change significantly, and the overall landscape richness will increase. (3) The ESV in Shunde decreased continuously from 1979 to 2020. The dike-pond ESV accounts for the largest proportion and is the main landscape type that maintains ecological balance. It is predicted that the ESV decline will slow in the future. (4) The optimized MCE-CA-Markov model has greater precision and produces better simulations. The dike-pond development model proposed in this study can provide a scientific basis for delimiting the scope of regional ecological protection and sustainable development.