Descriptive epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

At three months after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the number of infected cases and deaths are significantly greater than expected. This drastic increase in the number of new cases has unveiled remarkable deficiencies in the public health systems of most of the countries in the world. This paper aims to provide a descriptive epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 as of February 18, 2020, by estimating the magnitude of this disease in terms of Case fatality rate, reproduction number (R0), and the pattern of mortality as a function of time and place. Moreover, we compare the burden of Covid-19 with the burden of a virus outbreak previously occurred. The main finding is that the estimated R0 for COVID-19 is 3.52, which is considerably higher than that reported for SARS (range, 2-3), MERS-COV (<1), or Ebola (2.7) but a lower CFR. Globally, the CFR was stable during the study period, Feb 25-Apr 5, 2020, in the range of 3.43-4.92 with a mean value of 4.03. Both the USA and Europe have the highest number of cases and deaths. In contrast, in China, where the virus originated, great progress has been made with respect to disease control and lowering the caseload in a very short period. The number of cases and mortality due to COVID-19 has been hailed as one of the most remarkable public health deficiencies worldwide. Of course, CFR has its limitations as it tends to overestimate or underestimate the mortality risk of the disease. However, it can help us to better understand the severity of the disease as well as its progression and consequences on humans and healthcare resources. Hence, galvanize political support for ensuring adequate resources to overcome the consequences at the earliest possible. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by IASE.