Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia

被引：26

作者：

Alboaneen, Dabiah ^{[1
]}

Pranggono, Bernardi ^{[2
]}

Alshammari, Dhahi ^{[3
]}

Alqahtani, Nourah ^{[1
]}

Alyaffer, Raja ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal Univ, Coll Sci & Humanities Jubail, Comp Sci Dept, POB 31961, Jubail Ind City, Saudi Arabia

[2] Sheffield Hallam Univ, Dept Engn & Math, Sheffield S1 1WB, S Yorkshire, England

[3] Univ Hail, Coll Comp Sci & Engn, Comp Sci & Informat Dept, Hail 8145, Saudi Arabia

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH | 2020年 / 17卷 / 12期

关键词：

2019 novel coronavirus; COVID-19; Saudi Arabia; logistic growth model; SIR model;

D O I：

10.3390/ijerph17124568

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020.

引用

页码：1 / 10

页数：10

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