The Effect of Uncertainty Information on Short-term Reliability in Power Systems

被引：1

作者：

Park, Jong-Keun ^{[1
]}

Choi, Jaeseok ^{[2
]}

Min, Chang-Gi ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Seoul, South Korea

[2] Gyeongsang Natl Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Jinju, South Korea

[3] Chung Ang Univ, Dept Energy Syst Engn, Seoul, South Korea

来源：

IFAC PAPERSONLINE | 2016年 / 49卷 / 27期

关键词：

generator failure; net load forecast error (NLFE); ramping capability shortage expectation (RSE); sensitivity analysis; short-term reliability; uncertainty information; WIND; RESERVE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.10.703

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

This paper examines the effect of uncertainty information on short-term reliability using a risk index termed the ramping capability shortage expectation (RSE), which is calculated by adding the probabilities that the ramping capability shortage will occur. The failure rate of generators and the standard deviation of net load forecast error (NLFE) were chosen as the parameters describing the uncertainty information. Markov-chain-based capacity state model was used to describe the generators state. The NLFE was represented as a normal distribution, which is approximated by a seven-step function. With a modified IEEE-RTS-96, the sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty information was carries out. The sensitive generators with the changes in failure rate were found. The effect of the accuracy of net load forecast on the risk of the system was also identified. (c) 2016, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：273 / 277

页数：5

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