Short-term management of hydro-power systems based on uncertainty model in electricity markets

There are several methods for generating scenarios in stochastic programming. With extensive historical data records, one possibility is to represent the probability distribution of the uncertain data using a statistical model suitable for sampling. This method is especially useful for handling uncertain data that develops over time by means of time series analysis. In this paper a time series model relevant to the short-term management of hydro-power systems is proposed. This further illustrates the abilities of the models to capture developments in uncertain data over time. To demonstrate the validity of this model, results from the Nordic power exchange-Nord Pool- and a Norwegian power plant are presented.