CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RESERVOIR OPERATION: UKAI RESERVOIR AS A CASE STUDY

Reservoir operations are affected by the Reservoir inflows which are basically the runoff generated from precipitation or rainfall occurred in the catchment areas of river. Climate change causes variations in the meteorological and hydrological parameters such as rainfall, temperature, humidity etc. leads to the variation in reservoir inflow. Climate change is of global concern. Climate change studies aims to better understand the uncertainties involved in the system by analysing trend. The effect of climate change on reservoir inflow for reservoir operation of Ukai reservoir has been studied. The paper presents the climate change impact on the reservoir inflow in which Ukai reservoir has been taken as a case study. Reservoirs have to fulfil purposes like irrigation for multi crops, hydropower, water supplies, navigation, etc. The stored water can be used as per the requirement of crop and its demand rather than depending on runoff or rainfall is the main benefit of reservoir storage. Hence, the successful reservoir management and operation lies in the ability in selecting the appropriate operation policy amongst the available set of policies. Optimisation among the available water resources is nothing but the reservoir optimization. To achieve optimised reservoir operation, an effective reservoir operation model for various objectives are considered and the decisions at any level have to be taken with optimization technique. Study aims to predict the future scenario by taking in consideration of the past variations of the data. Fuzzy logic based reservoir operation' model is also discussed in this paper along with the concern climate change impact. Data sets of Inflow and Outflow for 10 years (1992-2001) have been used to train and validate the models and for twenty years (i.e. 1992 to 2011) performance characteristics and results for fuzzy logic based techniques have been made. Conclusion and results reveals that fuzzy logic is a reliable, accurate and practical means in controlled and optimal operation. Statistical analysis for the twenty years (1992-2011) model run have been done. The study is important from the flooding of Surat city as it is on the downstream side of Ukai dam and directly affected from the releases of Ukai dam.