Impact of Climate Change on the Input Flow of the Frio River Reservoir

This paper poses an assessment of the trend and negative impact of the input flow for the projected reservoir in the Frio River that will cover the demand of the towns of Chia, Tenjo, Tabio, Cota, and Cajica until the year 2100 considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5, which describe two ways of radiative forcing. Historical series and simulations based on global climate models like CCSM4, IPSL CM5A-LR, and MIROC ESM were used. Comparative analyses were performed to determine if the forecasted demands until the year 2070 can be supplied considering the climate change scenario. It is concluded that the estimated demands are elevated and have exponential growth, while the projected offer is not sufficient to satisfy supply requirements. The input flows are expected to decrease in an approximate of 20%.