Predicting the presidential presence: Explaining presidential midterm elections campaign behavior

In this article we analyze the campaign behavior of presidents in the congressional midterm elections held between 1954 and 1998. We seek to identify those factors that influence a president's decision to visit a particular state during the midterm election season and campaign. Employing a negative binomial regression model, we find that presidents determine their midterm election campaign schedule based on a consideration of the differences among the 50 states in terms of both the chief executive's personal popularity and the number of competitive races being held. The importance of these factors suggests that there is an underlying strategy to a president's campaign activity during the midterm election season that is comparable to campaigns for the presidency itself.