Explaining French elections: The presidential pivot

Trying to explain French elections sometimes seems like trying to see through a blinding snowstorm. But a focus on choice and outcome in presidential contests provides a clear path to their understanding. These elections, paramount in themselves, frame the lesser contests. Here we develop a theory of French presidential elections, using a French-style Michigan Model of political behavior. The theory explains these presidential results as a function of long-term forces (for example, social factors and ideological identification) and short-term forces (for example, campaign issues such as immigration, the economy and Europe). The theory is tested against election survey data from the five most recent elections (1988-2012). In general, it accounts well for outcomes in these contests. In particular, it explains why Sarkozy lost in 2012.