Decision making with imprecise probabilistic information

被引:37
|
作者
Gajdos, T
Tallon, JM
Vergnaud, JC
机构
[1] Univ Paris 01, CNRS, EUREQua, F-75647 Paris 13, France
[2] CNRS, CREST, F-75700 Paris, France
[3] ICER, F-75700 Paris, France
关键词
uncertainty; decision; multiple priors;
D O I
10.1016/j.jmateco.2003.06.004
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We develop an axiomatic approach to decision under uncertainty that explicitly takes into account the information available to the decision maker. The information is described by a set of priors and a reference prior. We define a notion of imprecision for this informational setting and show that a decision maker who is averse to information imprecision maximizes the minimum expected utility computed with respect to a subset of the set of initially given priors. The extent to which this set is reduced can be seen as a measure of imprecision aversion. This approach thus allows a lot of flexibility in modelling the decision maker attitude towards imprecision. In contrast, applying Gilboa and Schmeidler [J. Math. Econ. 18 (1989) 141] maxmin criterion to the initial set of priors amounts to assuming extreme pessimism. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码:647 / 681
页数:35
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