A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

被引：243

作者：

Mahmoud, Mohammed ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yuqiong ^{[2
]}

Hartmann, Holly ^{[3
]}

Stewart, Steven ^{[1
]}

Wagener, Thorsten ^{[4
]}

Semmens, Darius ^{[5
]}

Stewart, Robert ^{[6
]}

Gupta, Hoshin ^{[1
]}

Dominguez, Damian ^{[7
,8
]}

Dominguez, Francina ^{[1
]}

Hulse, David ^{[9
]}

Letcher, Rebecca ^{[10
]}

Rashleigh, Brenda ^{[11
]}

Smith, Court ^{[12
]}

Street, Roger ^{[13
]}

Ticehurst, Jenifer ^{[14
]}

Twery, Mark ^{[15
]}

van Delden, Hedwig ^{[16
]}

Waldick, Ruth ^{[17
]}

White, Denis ^{[18
]}

Winter, Larry ^{[19
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[2] NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA

[3] Univ Arizona, Arid Lands Informat Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA

[4] Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[5] USGS Rocky Mt Geog Sci Ctr, Lakewood, CO 80225 USA

[6] Univ Tennessee, Inst Environm Modeling, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA

[7] Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland

[8] ETH, Inst Environm Engn, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland

[9] Univ Oregon, Dept Landscape Architecture 5234, Eugene, OR 97403 USA

[10] Australian Natl Univ, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[11] US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Athens, GA 30605 USA

[12] Oregon State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[13] UKCIP OUCE, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[14] Australian Natl Univ, Integrated Catchment Assessment & Management Ctr, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[15] USDA Forest Serv Sci Technol & Appl Results, No Res Stn Program, S Burlington, VT 05403 USA

[16] RIKS, NL-6200 AL Maastricht, Netherlands

[17] Environm Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0H3, Canada

[18] US EPA, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA

[19] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE | 2009年 / 24卷 / 07期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Alternative futures; Decision-making; Scenario analysis; Scenarios; Scenario planning; Uncertainty; WATER-RESOURCES; FUTURE; RIVER; MODEL; MANAGEMENT; LAND; UNCERTAINTY; TOOL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：798 / 808

页数：11

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