A model to predict impervious surface for regional and municipal land use planning purposes

The area of impervious surface in a watershed is a forcing variable in many hydrologic models and has been proposed as a policy variable surrogate for water quality. We report a new statistical model which will allow land use planners to estimate impervious surface given minimal, readily available information about future growth. Our model is suitable for master planning purposes. In more urbanized areas, it tends to produce quite accurate forecasts. However, in less developed, more rural places, forecast error will increase. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.