Modelling Changes in Land Cover Patterns in Mtunzini, South Africa Using Satellite Imagery

Land is the basic resource that is needed by man in order to survive: It provides humans with living space, nutrition and energy resources. The rapid growth of the human population, climate change and pollution on a catastrophic scale has caused the quality of land resources to be compromised. Remote sensing is a useful tool in land cover change detection providing information to decision makers. The aim of this study was to evaluate land cover changes in the Mtunzini area in South Africa over the past 18 years; determine why changes have occurred and predict land cover patterns for future years. In this study a supervised classification was used to detect land cover classes of the Mtunzini area from 1992 to 2009 using four Landsat images in the time series analysis. The supervised classification had an accuracy of 80.80 % which was used to model land cover changes. Commercial sugar cane and forest plantation classes increased throughout the time series. It was estimated in the modelling procedure that bushland (42.11 %) and bare soil (35 %) would be changed to commercial sugar cane. This is indicative of the expanding agriculture sector in Mtunzini. Natural vegetation is predicted to be disturbed: 18 % of bushland and 15.07 % of dense bush are expected to be replaced by rural dwellings. This is owing to a potential increase in the rural population and a reduced local economic growth. This study highlights the need for increased vigilance of the forestry industry and commercial sugar cane farms which may be encroaching on natural vegetation and livelihoods of local residents. Strategic planning and proper management of natural vegetation types is needed as these land cover types are decreasing rapidly.