The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
机构:
MGIMO Univ, Sch Int Econ Relat, Moscow State Inst Int Relat, Moscow, RussiaMGIMO Univ, Sch Int Econ Relat, Moscow State Inst Int Relat, Moscow, Russia
机构:
Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public HealthDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
Stacey Rolak
Alexis M Keefe
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Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public HealthDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
Alexis M Keefe
Emily L Davidson
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Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public HealthDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
Emily L Davidson
Prabesh Aryal
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机构:Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
Prabesh Aryal
Sandesh Parajuli
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机构:Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
机构:
Kendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Nguyen, Jackie
Liu, Amy
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机构:
Kendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Liu, Amy
McKenney, Mark
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Kendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Univ S Florida, Dept Surg, Tampa, FL 33620 USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
McKenney, Mark
Liu, Huazhi
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机构:
Ocala Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Ocala, FL USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Liu, Huazhi
Ang, Darwin
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Ocala Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Ocala, FL USA
Univ Cent Florida, Dept Surg, Ocala, FL USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Ang, Darwin
Elkbuli, Adel
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机构:
Kendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USAKendall Reg Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Div Trauma & Surg Crit Care, Miami, FL USA
Elkbuli, Adel
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE,
2021,
48
: 38
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