The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
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Allegheny Hlth Network, Inst Cellular Therapeut, 320 East North Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 USAAllegheny Hlth Network, Inst Cellular Therapeut, 320 East North Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 USA
Knoll, Michael F.
Cooper, David K. C.
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Univ Alabama Birmingham, Dept Surg, Xenotransplantat Program, Birmingham, AL USAAllegheny Hlth Network, Inst Cellular Therapeut, 320 East North Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 USA
Cooper, David K. C.
Bottino, Rita
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Allegheny Hlth Network, Inst Cellular Therapeut, 320 East North Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 USA
Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Biol Sci, 4400 5th Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USAAllegheny Hlth Network, Inst Cellular Therapeut, 320 East North Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 USA
机构:
Cambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USACambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Gaffney, Adam
Himmelstein, David U.
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Cambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA
CUNY, New York, NY USACambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Himmelstein, David U.
Woolhandler, Steffie
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Cambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA
CUNY, New York, NY USACambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
机构:
Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Bojdani, Ermal
Rajagopalan, Aishwarya
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Rajagopalan, Aishwarya
Chen, Anderson
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Chen, Anderson
Gearin, Priya
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Gearin, Priya
Olcott, William
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Olcott, William
Shankar, Vikram
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Kern Med, Emergency Med Residency Program, Bakersfield, CA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Shankar, Vikram
Cloutier, Alesia
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Cloutier, Alesia
Solomon, Haley
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Harvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Solomon, Haley
Naqvi, Nida Z.
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Univ Maryland, Dept Internal Med, Upper Chesapeake Med Ctr, Bel Air, MD USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Naqvi, Nida Z.
Batty, Nicolas
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Indiana Univ, Sch Business, Bloomington, IN USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Batty, Nicolas
Festin, Fe Erlita D.
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Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Festin, Fe Erlita D.
Tahera, Dil
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机构:
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Tahera, Dil
Chang, Grace
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机构:
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
VA Boston Healthcare Syst, Brockton, MA USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA
Chang, Grace
DeLisi, Lynn E.
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机构:
Harvard Med Sch, Dept Psychiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Cambridge Hosp, Cambridge Hlth Alliance, Cambridge, MA 02139 USAHarvard South Shore Psychiat Residency Training P, Brockton, MA 02301 USA