The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Decoupling Transport CO2 Emissions from Economic Growth across 30 Provinces in China

Since 2005, China has become the largest emitter of CO2. The transport sector is a major source of CO2 emissions, and the most rapidly growing sector in terms of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This paper estimated CO2 emissions in the transport sector across 30 provinces through the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) top-down method and identified the spatiotemporal pattern of the decoupling of transport CO2 emissions from economic growth during 1995 to 2016 by the modified Tapio's decoupling model. The CO2 emissions in the transport sector increased from 103.10 million ton (Mt) in 1995 to 701.04 Mt in 2016. The year, 2005, was a turning point as the growth rate of transport CO2 emissions and the intensity of transport CO2 emissions declined. The spatial pattern of transport CO2 emissions and its decoupling status both exhibited an east-west differentiation. Nearly 80% of the provinces recently achieved decoupling, and absolute decoupling is beginning to take place. The local practices of Tianjin should be the subject of special attention. National carbon reduction policies have played a significant role in achieving a transition to low-carbon emissions in the Chinese transport sector, and the integration of multi-scale transport CO2 reduction policies will be promising for its decarbonisation.