Research on Analysis and Forecast of Power Demand Based on Changli Network

被引：0
|
作者：
Li Ying [1 ]
Liu Qihui [1 ]
Li Chao [2 ]
机构：
[1] North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Elect & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Shi Jiazhuang Power Supply Co, Dept Substn & Operat, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China
来源：
2011 ASIA-PACIFIC POWER AND ENERGY ENGINEERING CONFERENCE (APPEEC) | 2011年
关键词：
power demand forcasting; distribution network planning; grey system theory; maximum load;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
In this paper, based on the use of electric power in history and the economic development in future, from the geographical area, voltage level, the view of industry point, load cycle and other aspects, we summed up the characteristics of the power demand forecasting of Changli. Then based on the comprehensive analysis of these characteristics, we decided to use the power demand forecasting method based on grey system theory to predict the short term power demand and use the average annual growth rate method to predict the medium term power demand. According to the research on the electricity and the historical load data of changli power grid, we analyzed the characteristics of Changli's distribution network. Finally we predicted the power and maximum load of Changli from 2010 to 2015 by the forecasting method based on the grey system theory and average annual growth rate method.
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页数：4
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