Forecast of electricity demand and power balance in lithuania

A methodology of electricity demand forecasting and results of its application in Lithuania are discussed in the paper. The methodology is based on application of an econometric model and the methodology of uncertainty analysis. The electricity demand is described as a function of preceding amount, the relative changes in income (or development of the Gross Domestic Product) and electricity prices, and the behavioural reaction of consumers to changes in income and prices, as well as additional energy saving. The most probable path of economic development is discussed and corresponding forecast of electricity demand within the period 2000-2025 is presented. Based on the forecast of electricity demand, including feasible its range of +/- 10% to the main path, the forecast of maximal load is established and power balance in the Lithuanian power system is analysed. The paper shows, that in a case of moderate construction of comparatively small power plantss Lithuania will have enough capacities to meet growing demand till 2014.