Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: Insights from a mathematical model

被引：59

作者：

Johnson, Leigh F. ^{[1
]}

Dorrington, Rob E. ^{[1
]}

Bradshaw, Debbie

Pillay-Van Wyk, Victoria

Rehle, Thomas M.

机构：

[1] Univ Cape Town, Ctr Actuarial Res, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa

来源：

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH | 2009年 / 21卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; TRANSMITTED-DISEASE TRANSMISSION; HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS; CONDOM USE; RISK BEHAVIOR; HETEROSEXUAL TRANSMISSION; CONCURRENT PARTNERSHIPS; DISCORDANT COUPLES; MOMENT CLOSURE; INFECTION;

D O I：

10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.11

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity, and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

引用

页码：289 / 339

页数：51

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