Early warning of climate tipping points

被引：0

作者：

Lenton, Timothy M. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Hatherly Labs, Exeter EX4 4PS, Devon, England

[2] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2011年 / 1卷 / 04期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; REGIME SHIFTS; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS; ECOLOGICAL-SYSTEMS; EXPERT JUDGMENTS; ECOSYSTEMS; SIGNAL; CYCLE; AMPLIFICATION;

D O I：

10.1038/NCLIMATE1143

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

引用

页码：201 / 209

页数：9

共 50 条

[1] Early warning of climate tipping points
Lenton T.M.
[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1 (4) : 201 - 209
[2] Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
Ditlevsen, Peter D.
Johnsen, Sigfus J.
[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2010, 37
[3] Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points
Bury, Thomas M.
Sujith, R., I
Pavithran, Induja
Scheffer, Marten
Lenton, Timothy M.
Anand, Madhur
Bauch, Chris T.
[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2021, 118 (39)
[4] Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems
Williamson, Mark S.
Bathiany, Sebastian
Lenton, Timothy M.
[J]. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 2016, 7 (02) : 313 - 326
[5] Seeking more robust early warning signals for climate tipping points: the ratio of spectra method (ROSA)
Clarke, Joseph J.
Huntingford, Chris
Ritchie, Paul D. L.
Cox, Peter M.
[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2023, 18 (03):
[6] Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness
Lenton, T. M.
Livina, V. N.
Dakos, V.
van Nes, E. H.
Scheffer, M.
[J]. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2012, 370 (1962): : 1185 - 1204
[7] Detecting and distinguishing tipping points using spectral early warning signals
Bury, T. M.
Bauch, C. T.
Anand, M.
[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 2020, 17 (170)
[8] Arctic Climate Tipping Points
Lenton, Timothy M.
[J]. AMBIO, 2012, 41 (01) : 10 - 22
[9] Spatial early warning signals for tipping points using dynamic mode decomposition
Donovan, G. M.
Brand, C.
[J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2022, 596
[10] Tipping points in the climate system
Lenton, Timothy M.
[J]. WEATHER, 2021, 76 (10) : 325 - 326

← 1 2 3 4 5 →