Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

被引：192

作者：

Ditlevsen, Peter D. ^{[1
]}

Johnsen, Sigfus J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Ice & Climate, Niels Bohr Inst, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2010年 / 37卷

关键词：

THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; CLIMATE; EVENTS;

D O I：

10.1029/2010GL044486

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability. Citation: Ditlevsen, P. D., and S. J. Johnsen (2010), Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044486.

引用

页数：4

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