Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

被引：37
|
作者：
Boynton, R. J. [1 ]
Balikhin, M. A. [1 ]
Billings, S. A. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Sheffield, Dept Automat Control & Syst Engn, Sheffield S1 3JD, S Yorkshire, England
来源：
ANNALES GEOPHYSICAE | 2015年 / 33卷 / 03期
基金：
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;
关键词：
Magnetospheric physics; energetic particles trapped; solar wind-magnetosphere interactions; NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS; OUTPUT PARAMETRIC MODELS; OUTER RADIATION BELT; RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS; GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT; ENERGETIC ELECTRONS; SOLAR-WIND; DIFFUSION-COEFFICIENTS; MAGNETIC STORMS; NEURAL-NETWORK;
D O I：
10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015
中图分类号：
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号：
0704 ;
摘要：
Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input-output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB(3)GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html.
引用
收藏
页码：405 / 411
页数：7
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