Study of the energetic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit with a time-varying NARMAX method

被引：0
|
作者：
Liu Shuai [1 ]
Li Zhi [1 ]
Lin Ruilin [2 ]
机构：
[1] Equipment Acad, Dept Space Command, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Sci, NSSC, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源：
2015 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER, COMMUNICATIONS, AND CONTROL TECHNOLOGY (I4CT) | 2015年
关键词：
High Energetic Electron Flux; NARMAX; Kalman Filter; Nonlinear Modeling; OUTPUT PARAMETRIC MODELS; NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号：
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要：
The Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs(NARMAX) approach is briefly introduced. Since its advantage on nonlinear system modeling, this paper focuses on its application for describing the dynamic energetic electron flux(>2MeV) variations at the geostationary orbit. A basic one-step-ahead nonlinear model and a Kalman Filter modified one are built to map the relationship between the electron fluxes and the solar wind and the geomagnetic index. The prediction efficiency reaches up to 79.7%. The validation procedure further confirms that this method is effective and could be helpful in studying the radiation belt.
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页数：5
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