The unsolicited proposal and performance of private participation infrastructure projects in developing countries

Purpose The primary purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the unsolicited proposal (USP) and the performance of private participation infrastructure (PPI) projects in developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The main data set for this study was collected from the World Bank database consisting of 8,951 PPI projects that occurred in developing countries from 1996 to 2020. Hierarchical logistic regression was applied for investigating the effects of USPs on project success. Three moderators, namely, control of corruption, presence of local sponsor and project size were also included in the model to test the impact of their interactions with the USP on the performance of PPI projects. Further, to assess the impact of the effect of USPs, the average marginal effect was calculated. The framework used in this study consists of 18 control variables, three moderators and one noncontrolled independent variable (the USP). Findings The results of hierarchical logistic regression indicate that USPs have a significant and negative effect on the success of PPI projects occurring in developing countries. The negative effect of a USP weakens with the presence of local sponsors and stronger control of corruption in the host country. However, contrary to the authors' expectations, the results show that project size does not significantly affect the association between USPs and the success of PPI projects. Moreover, the results of average marginal effects show that the negative impact of USP on the success of PPI projects ranges between 2.4% and 3.8%. Originality/value This study quantifies the negative impact of USP on the success of PPI projects in developing countries, which will be helpful for the practitioners to understand the associated risk with USP projects. Furthermore, it also identifies the moderating roles of control of corruption and the presence of local sponsors on the relationship between USP and the success of PPI projects.