Analysing the Risk Propagation in the Project Portfolio Network using the SIRF Model

Due to the existence of dependencies among the projects, the risk in one project will cause risks in other projects, which will lead to the risk propagation in the portfolio network. To measure the criticality of projects in the portfolio considering risk propagation, the paper builds the risk analysis model using the complex network and SIRF model. Firstly, we build the network of the project portfolio based on the analysis of the independency among projects, then we propose the integrated project criticality measurement (IPCM) algorithm based on the complex network theory. The IPCM algorithm integrates the K-shell, eigenvector centrality and the neighbour nodes in the complex network to analyse the project criticality. Furthermore, the link entropy is used to calculate the influence of the project in the network. On this basis, combined with the practice of R&D project management, the SIRF (susceptible-infected-recovered-failed) model is proposed to analyse the dynamic propagation process of the risk in the project portfolio network. Then the priority ranking of the project portfolio is realized under the dynamic risk propagation. Finally, a representative example is provided to illustrate the validity of proposed models.