The New Method to Determine the Confidence Probability of Wind Power Prediction Result

The uncertainty analysis of power predictive results is very important to the dispatching of wind power. For the shortcomings of traditional methods that determine the confidence probability, this paper proposes a new method to determine the confidence probability based on independent component analysis (ICA) and conditional probability theory. According to the new method, the power independent influence events set can be obtained from ICA, and the problem of determining the confidence probability can be transformed into the problem of determining unconditional probability and conditional probability whose objectives are several independent influence events. The method is clear and easy to be resolved, which fully takes into account occurrence conditions of the objective power and the original content. The simulation results show the confidence probability result obtained by the new method has more realistic sense and scientific guidance value.