This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: (1) inflation persistence has declined, (2) the Phillips-curve has flattened and (3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better monetary policy. The paper then goes on to draw implications for monetary policy from this interpretation, as well as implications for inflation forecasts.
机构:
Renmin Univ China, Sch Finance, China Financial Policy Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaRenmin Univ China, Sch Finance, China Financial Policy Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
机构:
Int Monetary Fund, Monetary & Capital Markets Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USAInt Monetary Fund, Monetary & Capital Markets Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Caceres, Carlos
Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos
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Int Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USAInt Monetary Fund, Monetary & Capital Markets Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos
Tartari, Darlena
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Int Monetary Fund, African Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USAInt Monetary Fund, Monetary & Capital Markets Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA