Perceived environmental uncertainty in tourism:: A new approach using the Rasch model

One of the core steps in all strategic management processes, but especially in tourism firms, is the consideration of the organisational environment. A methodology for scanning that environment is presented from the perspective of perceived environmental uncertainty, according to its dynamism and complexity. To that end, the Rasch model [Rasch, G. (1980). Probabilistic models for some intelligence and attainment tests. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (First publication in 1960, Chicago, IL. MESA Press)] is applied, and both dimensions are considered latent variables defined by a set of items. The concepts are assessed using a sample of tourism firms located in the Canary Islands (Spain). The results confirm that dynamism and complexity are related to the perception of uncertainty, and a specific function is presented. The environmental uncertainty can then be explained and determined with regard only to the managers' perceptions, without the need to include parameters. The methodology also enables managers and institutions to identify the most uncertain perceived items. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.