Wake-sleep transition as a noisy bifurcation

A recent physiologically based model of the ascending arousal system is used to analyze the dynamics near the transition from wake to sleep, which corresponds to a saddle-node bifurcation at a critical point. A normal form is derived by approximating the dynamics by those of a particle in a parabolic potential well with dissipation. This mechanical analog is used to calculate the power spectrum of fluctuations in response to a white noise drive, and the scalings of fluctuation variance and spectral width are derived versus distance from the critical point. The predicted scalings are quantitatively confirmed by numerical simulations, which show that the variance increases and the spectrum undergoes critical slowing, both in accord with theory. These signals can thus serve as potential precursors to indicate imminent wake-sleep transition, with potential application to safety-critical occupations in transport, air-traffic control, medicine, and heavy industry.