Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring

被引:6
|
作者
Ball, Frank [1 ]
Britton, Tom [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nottingham, Sch Math Sci, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, Stockholm, Sweden
基金
瑞典研究理事会;
关键词
branching process; limit theorems; random graph; rewiring; SIR epidemic; MODELS; LIMIT; SIZE;
D O I
10.1002/rsa.21066
中图分类号
TP31 [计算机软件];
学科分类号
081202 ; 0835 ;
摘要
A stochastic SIR (susceptible -> infective -> recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a network, described initially by an Erdos-Renyi random graph, in which susceptible individuals connected to infectious neighbors may drop or rewire such connections. A novel construction of the model is used to derive a deterministic model for epidemics started with a positive fraction initially infected and prove convergence of the scaled stochastic model to that deterministic model as the population size n ->infinity. For epidemics initiated by a single infective that take off, we prove that for part of the parameter space, in the limit as n ->infinity, the final fraction infected tau(lambda) is discontinuous in the infection rate lambda at its threshold lambda c, thus not converging to 0 as lambda down arrow lambda c. The discontinuity is particularly striking when rewiring is necessarily to susceptible individuals in that tau(lambda) jumps from 0 to 1 as lambda passes through lambda c.
引用
收藏
页码:250 / 297
页数:48
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